Fri. May 24th, 2024

2024 PGA Championship: Experts’ picks and betting tips

By admin May16,2024

The second golf major of the year is here with the 2024 PGA Championship from Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville, Kentucky, where previous winners include Tiger Woods (2000) and Rory McIlroy (2014).

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? ESPN’s golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2024 PGA Championship.

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Experts’ picks to win | Betting roundtable

Experts’ picks

Matt Barrie
Winner —Rory McIlroy: Why? Google “Rory McIlroy 2014 wins.”

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Tory Barron
Winner —Brooks Koepka. Death, taxes and Brooks Koepka winning the PGA Championship. If you’re still talking about his lackluster Masters performance, you clearly didn’t watch his LIV Golf tournament win in Singapore. Neither did I, but that’s beside the point. Big Game Brooks is back and ready to join Tiger Woods as the proud owner of four Wanamaker Trophies.

Elizabeth Baugh
Winner — McIlroy. It’s hard to not pick Rory for any major, but especially now when he’s heading into the week coming off a win with his game in such great form. And at Valhalla, the scene of the 2014 win, it just makes sense for him to finish the story.

David Duval
Winner — Scottie Scheffler. I’ve got to go with the world No. 1. It’s difficult to pick anyone else when he has been so consistently excellent. With that being said, I would let a person pick any one player and then take the field. Tournament golf is incredibly difficult to predict.

Paolo Uggetti
Winner — McIlroy. Look, if it’s ever going to happen it’s probably going to look like this: McIlroy, coming off a convincing win, his game peaking just as he is getting the opportunity to play at a place where he has already won a major before. Sure, it was 10 years ago, but it happened, didn’t it? The four-time major winner is an entirely different person now, but in the close calls since and the recent wins at Wells Fargo and Zurich, there is enough to believe that the player who won all those majors is still in there waiting, ready to win again.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Winner —Xander Schauffele. The right pick would probably be Scottie Scheffler, but we’ll give Schauffele his first major. He has played well this season despite not winning, finishing T25 or better in 10 of the 11 events he has played in, including seven top-10s. He finished T2 at the Players and eighth at the Masters, so he has done well in the biggest events.

Andy North
Winner — McIlroy. I like Rory. He has some mojo back and he has won at Valhalla Golf Club. We don’t know how Scheffler is doing.

Mark Schlabach
Winner — McIlroy. It’s time. He has won in each of his past two starts — with good friend Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic team event in New Orleans and last week’s Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina. Length is needed at Valhalla, and few golfers hit it farther than Rory. The nearly 10-year drought without a major title comes to an end Sunday.

Curtis Strange
Winner — Scheffler. I’m going with Scottie. He’s the best in the world.

Scott Van Pelt
Winner — Schauffele. Xander is so close so often. He played well a week ago in Charlotte; perhaps it was a blessing to not close it out. This weekend, he finally kicks the door down and gets the big trophy. (Unless Scottie wins again, which he might, and then I will feel dumb for not just saying his name like I did for the Masters).

Betting roundtable

Odds by ESPN BET

The door could be open for Xander Schauffele to win his first major. Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Who is your pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Ludvig Åberg (+2000)

Why he’ll win: I’m going to play Åberg to win a major until it happens. I feel this strategy is going to net me profits far sooner than later. He finished second in his Masters debut, which speaks to his unreal talent. That is usually a tournament that requires golfers to take their lumps before they contend. Valhalla sets up perfectly for his game as it requires long, straight driving of the golf ball. I think his recent WD at Quail Hollow because of a knee injury is only giving us better value on his ticket.

David Gordon, ESPN Stats & Information
Winner: Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Why he’ll win: With the top two favorites experiencing some off-the-course challenges, the door is as open as it ever has been for Schauffele, who has yet to reach his full potential in majors. Schauffele finished eighth at the 2024 Masters with his B-game, and he’s the only player with top-20 finishes in each of the past eight majors. A top-20 obviously does no good here, but I really believe it’s a matter of “when” not “if” for Schauffele, and this feels like his best chance to date.

Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Rory McIlroy (+650)

Why he’ll win: Data Golf gives Rory a 7.8% chance to win. Coming off of a victory at the Wells Fargo, he enters the PGA Championship with a ton of confidence and swagger. Rory is driving the ball exceptionally well, ranked 1st in total driving and 2nd in distance. If anyone is going to give Scottie a run for his money, it is Rory and how dialed in he is right now.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Rory McIlroy (-115)

Fulghum: McIlroy is in phenomenal form right now. He carried Shane Lowry to a victory at the Zurich team event. He lapped the field last week at Quail Hollow. We thought perhaps dealing with the politics of golf had been weighing on him in recent years, but maybe the mental anguish had more to do with his personal life. With a clear head and a lot of confidence from recent results, I think he’s live to win his first major in 10 years, and his last one just so happened to be the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Cameron Smith (+330)

Gordon: Smith has been exceptional in majors dating back to 2022 and has started to figure out how to play well at the PGA Championship. He tied for 13th in 2022 at Southern Hills and tied for ninth last year at Oak Hill, posting career-best PGA finishes in consecutive years. He has posted top-10 finishes in three of the past four majors — just as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have done — and he’s coming off a runner-up finish to Brooks Koepka in his last start at LIV Singapore.

Collin Morikawa (+260)

Marks: Data Golf gives Colin a 22.7% chance to finish in the top 10. He won this tournament at Harding Park in 2022, and excels on Nicklaus designed courses with wins at Montreux, Muirfield Village and Concession.

What is your favorite Tiger Woods bet?

Tiger Woods to miss the cut | Tournament Matchup – Phil Mickelson OVER Woods (-150)

Fulghum: Even as the biggest Tiger stan (who still thinks it’s possible the old man wins a 16th major), seeing Tiger compete at layouts such as the U.S. Open and now the PGA Championship is hard to imagine. Though Tiger still has the length off the tee, a major part of competing at a tournament like this is stamina. At Augusta, he can compensate with supreme course knowledge. At the Open Championship, course terrain is far less likely to be prohibitive. When Tiger is teeing it up at a U.S. Open or PGA Championship, I’m going to be betting against him.

To finish in the top 20 after Round 1 (+350)

Gordon: This isn’t going to be a significant part of the card! Still, it wasn’t too difficult to talk myself into Tiger playing well on Thursday morning before a long rest that could even turn longer if Friday’s play is affected by weather. Tiger has shown flashes of good play over his past five major appearances — all of which have come on Thursdays — with T10 (2022 Masters) and T35 (2024 Masters) 18-hole positions.

To miss the cut

Marks: I can see Tiger starting strong in Round 1, like we saw at the Masters. His grind was impressive, but the wear and tear will catch up to him on Day 2. I don’t believe we will see him compete over the weekend. This track is a beast.

Who are your favorite long shots to win?

Dustin Johnson (+7500)

Fulghum: It does not seem like Johnson cares that much about major championship golf after cashing in on a LIV Golf ticket, but seeing him at that price is too tempting. His game, in theory, is a great fit for this course. He’s long and accurate off the tee. I’ll probably regret this, but why not?

Jordan Spieth (+7500)

Gordon: Spieth has shown nothing to suggest he’s contending at this time on Sunday, but I’d rather take a ride on the Spieth roller coaster with the lowest of expectations than miss out on what would be a historic victory — only five players have ever completed the career Grand Slam, and the last player to do it was Tiger Woods in 2000. Spieth to win the PGA Championship will be a small-unit play for me regardless of the price until he no longer competes.

Justin Thomas (+4500)

Marks: Thomas Is in better form this season, and has been very solid off the tee. If his flatstick performs this week, he will have a shot at winning. JT was born in Kentucky, so he is playing with added motivation to win here.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

Rory McIlroy (+110) Top GB + Ireland Golfer

Gordon: I’m all in on this market; he’s -115 to finish in the top 10 of the tournament, but he’s plus money here in which his only real competition is Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry. Feels like a fun and easy follow, as well as some insurance in the event his top-10 finish gets chopped — any avenue to play Rory at plus money this week is one I’m willing to take.

Jake Knapp top 40 (+150)

Marks: Data Golf gives Knapp a 52% chance to make the cut. He has won on the PGA Tour at the Mexico Open in February. And Knapp is long off the tee; he can make some noise in this field.


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